Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 83737.348611 88369.426941 92998.130545 97967.227111 103147.394914 108385.042732 114077.712696
2024-12-22 75318.199124 82352.987662 89578.561899 97544.497985 106069.764649 114909.595675 124757.966627
2024-12-29 70661.941244 79440.144160 88651.643025 99017.135148 110334.532665 122294.345602 135866.521310
2025-01-05 66756.360537 76830.482514 87593.643008 99913.230574 113587.671116 128264.067653 145169.636378
2025-01-12 63030.156728 74071.487785 86057.338679 99983.271401 115664.401721 132721.830888 152623.916937
2025-01-19 59711.150057 71518.800856 84523.194688 99837.794841 117305.926900 136535.364781 159227.856747
2025-01-26 58031.871032 70685.697791 84800.552999 101620.267844 121021.000785 142599.448729 168313.860018
2025-02-02 56542.188765 69956.559813 85097.404638 103337.146474 124592.740659 148457.888938 177150.598102
2025-02-09 54673.364637 68674.515642 84658.387659 104115.594063 127012.838353 152951.924803 184400.532194
2025-02-16 52463.392278 66882.332577 83527.124183 103995.413092 128311.561570 156096.160101 190054.161323
2025-02-23 50790.194806 65654.636399 82992.814637 104515.771264 130309.802308 160017.773354 196595.427357
2025-03-02 48950.062616 64146.489474 82053.436645 104488.104019 131604.733010 163076.786816 202103.355116
2025-03-09 47861.762666 63544.503396 82204.792588 105788.391310 134523.943826 168116.820161 210052.330346
2025-03-16 45983.004403 61897.574225 81028.292862 105428.853219 135410.531231 170724.536284 215114.682749
2025-03-23 45194.151966 61581.492387 81458.849216 107016.293511 138650.805223 176156.250210 223585.085846
2025-03-30 44155.109247 60904.442573 81404.624833 107974.486434 141102.292421 180632.909058 230919.360615
2025-04-06 42761.805622 59723.139850 80674.269499 108050.010362 142434.773001 183733.629549 236582.823015
2025-04-13 41340.914018 58457.471957 79793.205766 107895.391858 143448.479034 186423.705252 241737.980922
2025-04-20 40924.313381 58483.560075 80541.224767 109792.376932 147026.030136 192275.456959 250801.873671
2025-04-27 40503.594564 58483.426129 81240.544373 111619.137054 150517.574584 198036.468137 259787.979631
2025-05-04 39675.317123 57911.630392 81176.428390 112447.282093 152735.506100 202218.053607 266834.904938
2025-05-11 38483.093827 56814.593309 80395.266773 112319.434340 153713.828885 204840.108479 271940.530678
2025-05-18 37627.770988 56146.857673 80153.700752 112872.977597 155551.255164 208536.550436 278400.651052